Numerical assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of a small Mediterranean river, Lesvos Island, Greece

Abstract Frequency of flash floods and droughts in the Mediterranean climate zone is expected to rise coming years due change its climate. The assessment impact at a basin scale essential for developing mitigation adaptation plans. This study analyses variation hydrologic regime small river (the Kalloni Lesvos Island, Greece) by examination possible future scenarios. response was simulated based on Hydrologic Modeling System developed Engineering Center (HEC-HMS). Weather Generator version 6 from Long Ashton Research Station (LARS-WG 6.0) utilized forecast data 2021 2080. These forecasted were then assigned as weather inputs HEC-HMS downscale predictions five large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) three emission scenarios (such RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). alteration evaluated comparing GCMs estimates streamflow evapotranspiration with business usual (BaU) scenario. Variation noted seasonal annual forecasting long-term average discharges, which show increasing trend autumn decreasing summer there observed upward actual losses.